Archives for February 2024

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How Much Cash Should You Have In Your Portfolio?

A reader writes in, asking:

“I’m not sure if you would consider a blog post or similar regarding cash (CD’s, Short Term Treasuries, Money Market, etc) but after reading and following your portfolio recommendations I’m curious if you have opinions on cash and how much to keep at any given time. I recognize all situations are different but you’ve always done a good job of laying out the options. My specific situation is: recently retired but my wife is working for another 2 years at which point we will both be retired.”

Firstly, I’m going to assume for the sake of this article that you already have a sufficient emergency fund in place or do not need an emergency fund. That is, we’re assuming that you already have a way to cover an unexpected major expense without incurring financial disaster. The question is simply: what part of the non-emergency-fund portfolio should be invested in cash?

And I’m also going to set aside the case of a “tactical” cash allocation (i.e., holding cash with the goal of investing it at just the right time after a downturn), because I’m not optimistic about the ability to do that in any useful way. Instead, I’m focusing on a static cash allocation (i.e., holding cash, with the intent of it being an ongoing part of the allocation).

The following chart from PortfolioVisualizer shows a $1,000,000 initial portfolio balance, neither adding to nor spending from the portfolio over time. This is from January 1987 – January 2024. (January 1987 is the earliest date for which PortfolioVisualizer has “total US bond market” data.)

The blue line represents a portfolio of 40% total US stock market, 20% total international stock market, and 40% total US bond market. The red line represents of portfolio of 41% total US stock market, 20% total international stock market, 29% total US bond market, and 10% cash.* (The 1% increase in stock allocation is to keep the overall risk level similar.)

Here’s the PortfolioVisualizer link, in case you want to examine the numerical metrics or adjust any variables on your own.

To me, those look functionally the same.

Now let’s look at a portfolio from which we’re spending. The following chart from PortfolioVisualizer shows a $1,000,000 initial portfolio balance, using a “4%” rule type of spending strategy (i.e., spending $40,000 in the first year and then adjusting that spending upward with inflation). Again, this is from January 1987 – January 2024. And the asset allocations are the same as above. So this is a pretty significant cash allocation: 2.5 years worth of spending (10% of the portfolio, when spending 4% in the first year).

Here’s the PortfolioVisualizer link, in case you want to examine the numerical metrics or adjust any variables on your own.

Again, they’re very similar. And I think we can at least agree that, if the cash did make a meaningful difference, it was not in a useful direction.

And I get a similar set of conclusions whenever I run Monte Carlo simulations, whether via PortfolioVisualizer or RightCapital. Swapping out a chunk of the bonds for cash (and then adjusting the stock allocation upward a smidge, to make an apples-to-apples comparison) is…fine.

There’s nothing magical about cash. Whatever we can achieve by shifting a chunk of the portfolio from bonds into cash, we can probably achieve by just slightly bumping up the overall fixed-income allocation instead. This is just another case of “Asset Allocation Isn’t Magic.” There are lots of different asset allocations that will get you to a given level of risk and expected return, and any such allocation tends to be about as good as another.

Personally, I tend to opt for the simplest route (i.e., whichever allocation involves the fewest number of total funds or the least rebalancing).

But one relevant caveat is that, if cash specifically, relative to other types of fixed-income, helps you feel better about your portfolio (i.e., it makes bad days/months/years in the market feel less stressful because you know “I’ve got ___ years of cash, ready to tap into, if needed”) then that’s a compelling point in favor of a cash holding. But from a purely financial perspective, there doesn’t appear to be any specific need for a big cash allocation.

*PortfolioVisualizer uses 3-month Treasury Bills as the return for “cash.”

Investing Blog Roundup: Rolling 529 Dollars to a Roth IRA

Due to the SECURE Act 2.0 owners of 529 plans can roll a limited amount of of the 529 money into a Roth IRA. As Allan Roth explains in a recent article, there are several rules to follow, some administrative challenges, as well as a bit of remaining ambiguity in the law.

Other Recommended Reading

Thanks for reading!

How to Research a Social Security Question

Based on reader feedback, the recent “How to Research a Tax Question” article was super popular. A handful of people suggested doing the same thing, but with Social Security. So, what follows are my tips for researching a Social Security question.

With tax questions, the three broad categories of authoritative sources are the law (Internal Revenue Code), Treasury regulations (as well as revenue rulings), and court cases.

Similarly, for Social Security, we have the law (Social Security Act), regulations, and court cases. But I will tell you that in ~13 years of dealing regularly with Social Security topics, I don’t recall a single time in which I had to refer to court cases. (One important point here is that I don’t deal with Social Security disability claims. If that’s a relevant topic for you, court cases may be of more interest.)

The three primary sources that I refer to regularly are:

The Law (Social Security Act)

Analogous to the Internal Revenue Code, it is the Social Security Act that is the most authoritative source. That is, if something written somewhere else contradicts what is plainly written in the Act, it’s the Act that wins.

But as with the Internal Revenue Code, the Social Security Act is written in legalese. So be prepared to read slowly, thoroughly, cautiously, and repeatedly in order to gain a full understanding. Be patient with yourself.

Code of Federal Regulations (CFR)

After the law itself, the regulations are the next most authoritative source. Interestingly, somewhat unlike Treasury regulations, the Social Security regulations do not seek to elaborate only upon points that might be unclear in the law. Rather, they seek to explain the whole darned thing, in plainer language than the law itself.

In other words, the CFR is more comprehensive and easier to read than the law itself. For most everyday uses, that makes it a clear win, relative to the Act, as a starting point for research. And it is indeed my first place to look, generally speaking. (But always do keep in mind that it’s a lower level of authority than the law. If there’s a contradiction between the two, the law wins.)

For me, researching via the CFR usually means starting with the homepage for Part 404 and then scrolling (or using “control/command + F”) to the applicable section. A Google-based approach (such as the following example query) can work, but it’s somewhat less successful, in my experience, than trying a similar trick for internal revenue code sections. Hence my “scroll to the relevant part” approach.

  • ssa cfr survivor benefit requirements

One last super important point about the CFR on the SSA website: it was never updated for the changes made by the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015. So on topics of deemed filing and voluntary suspension, it’s giving you the old rules, which are no longer applicable for anybody.

Program Operations Manual System (POMS)

Next we have the Program Operations Manual System (POMS). The POMS is the SSA’s internal manual, which they make available to the public. Given that it’s written by the SSA — and is in fact the set of directions that SSA employees will use when processing an application for benefits — it’s extremely credible.  And it’s by far the most thorough source.

But it must be remembered that the POMS has no legal authority. In contexts in which you really want to be sure, you can’t rely solely on the POMS, as the SSA can reword it at any time (provided that the new wording is still in keeping with the law).*

The POMS is meant to be read by non-lawyer human beings, so the sentence structure it uses is not legalese. But it is nonetheless intended for an internal audience (i.e., SSA employees), so it’s loaded with jargon and acronyms. (Here’s a glossary of some of the most common acronyms.)

As far as finding something in the POMS, you might be able to find something just by browsing, starting at the table of contents. But I have definitely had better results starting with a Google query, such as this:

  • ssa poms deemed filing

In many cases I find that I have to take a “from both directions” approach. That is, I Google to find a POMS section that is at least closely related to the information I’m seeking. Then I look in the top of the page for the section reference (e.g., RS 00615.004). And then I start at the POMS table of contents and drill down in that direction, until I’m looking at a narrower table of contents with a list of related sections, one of which hopefully has the information I need.

Social Security Handbook

Finally, one source that you may want to check is the Social Security Handbook. It’s very similar to IRS publications in that:

  • It’s written in plain language, and it’s from a very credible source.
  • But it has no legal authority, and in some cases it leaves out various exceptions or includes simplifications.

*There was one infamous case, which I will keep anonymous because my point is only to be illustrative of the concept rather than to name names. Some years ago, a book about Social Security was written which contained a recommendation for a filing strategy for disability benefit recipients. The author believed that the strategy in question was allowed, based on his/her reading of the relevant part of the POMS. After the publication of the book, the SSA essentially said, “Sorry, you can’t do that. There’s nothing in the law that supports that position.” And indeed there isn’t. So they rewrote the POMS to be more clear that the strategy in question is not allowed.

Want to Learn More about Social Security? Pick Up a Copy of My Book:

Social Security coverSocial Security Made Simple: Social Security Retirement Benefits and Related Planning Topics Explained in 100 Pages or Less
Topics Covered in the Book:
  • How retirement benefits, spousal benefits, and widow(er) benefits are calculated,
  • How to decide the best age to claim your benefit,
  • How Social Security benefits are taxed and how that affects tax planning,
  • Click here to see the full list.

A Testimonial from a Reader on Amazon:

"An excellent review of various facts and decision-making components associated with the Social Security benefits. The book provides a lot of very useful information within small space."

Investing Blog Roundup: Interview with Rob Berger about Social Security

Last week, Rob Berger interviewed me for his popular Financial Freedom show. We discussed a range of Social Security topics: basic rules, benefit calculations, terminology, planning considerations, and the Open Social Security tool. I hope you enjoy it.

Other Recommended Reading

Thanks for reading!

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My Social Security calculator: Open Social Security