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Investing Blog Roundup: Morningstar Mind the Gap Again Shows Investors Do Well With Target-Date and Balanced Funds

Morningstar recently released the 2025 edition of the Mind the Gap study (pdf available here).

The study looks at how investors actually performed in their funds (i.e., accounting for the timing of cash inflows and outflows) as compared to the reported performance of the funds themselves over the same period of time.

There are a variety of takeaways from the study, but there are two results that stand out to me:

  • Investors did well with “allocation” funds such as target-date funds and balanced funds.
  • Investors did not do well with sector equity funds.

One of the most noteworthy things is that we see those two results every time.

People consistently have a performance gap with sector equity funds. And that doesn’t surprise me at all. An asset allocation that was crafted without the influence of performance chasing usually does not include any sector funds.

And people consistently have good performance (relative to the performance of the funds themselves) with allocation funds such as target-date funds and balanced funds. And that is also entirely unsurprising. The whole point of funds like that is to just buy them and leave them alone. And most people do exactly that.

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Tax Alchemy: Turning Interest Income Into Capital Gains

I recently learned of two brand new ETFs (launched just last week) that purport to provide only price appreciation rather than interest income, despite being bond funds. The benefit of such would be that all of the return that shareholders receive would be capital gains — and thus potentially taxed at the favorable long-term capital gain tax rates, rather than being taxed as ordinary income.

The strategy is very simple. Each of the funds is a “fund of funds.” But at most times, each fund will own only one or two underlying ETFs.

  • The aggregate bond ETF (CPAG) expects to own only iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG).
  • And the high-yield bond ETF (CPHY) expects to own iShares Broad USD High Yield Corp Bond ETF (USHY) and SPDR Portfolio High Yield Bond ETF (SPHY).

And, on the day before the ex-dividend date for the underlying fund, these new ETFs will swap that underlying fund for a substitute fund which 1) has broadly similar holdings and 2) which will not be paying a dividend on that day. And then on the following day, the new ETF swaps back to the “normal” underlying fund.

So in short the idea is to just own a boring/normal bond ETF in the category in question, and temporarily swap it out for some other boring/normal bond ETF at the appropriate time in order to avoid receiving any dividend distributions.

(Terminology note: the distributions from a bond fund are still known as “dividends,” but they’re taxed as interest when it’s ultimately interest income from the underlying bonds that is being distributed.)

So, in theory, investors would get approximately the same total return and risk characteristics as the underlying fund, but with better tax-efficiency.

So what’s the catch?

Costs

The first catch is a simple and obvious one: the new ETFs add a layer of expenses. CPAG will charge a management fee of 0.39%, and CPHY will charge a management fee of 0.49%. Those costs are in addition to the fees of the underlying ETFs.

So any tax-efficiency that you gain would have to overcome that additional cost every year. The higher that interest rates are and the higher your marginal tax rate, the more likely it is that that the tax savings would overcome the costs. The lower that interest rates are and the lower your marginal tax rate, the less likely it is that the tax savings would overcome the additional costs.

Tracking Error

The next potential concern is that, even ignoring the costs, the new ETFs might not achieve the same performance as their primary underlying holdings, due to the periodic swapping of those primary holdings for substitute funds. Nasdaq (which is operating the new indexes that these new funds will track) published a document showing the most likely substitute funds.

For instance, as substitutes for iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG), the best partners appear to be Hartford Core Bond ETF (HCRB) and Fidelity Total Bond ETF (FBND). Here’s a chart from testfol.io showing the performance of those three funds for as long as they’ve all been around:

They’re definitely very similar, but they’re not identical. Swapping one out for another for just a handful of days per year shouldn’t make a big difference. But it’s possible that it might.

What about IRC § 1258?

Another broad category of concerns can be described as, “are the tax code and Treasury department okay with this?” In other words, does the proposed strategy not run afoul of any rules?

My answer to that would be: not that I can think of, but it’s always possible I’m missing something.

Another fund company (Alpha Architect) has sought to achieve interest-to-capital-gains alchemy in another way with their Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box ETF (BOXX). There’s an excellent article by Daniel Hemel that raises substantial doubt as to the validity of their strategy though.

But I don’t think the concerns raised in that article apply here. The code section in question (IRC § 1258) becomes an issue when “substantially all of the taxpayer’s expected return” is attributable to time value of money. With a box spread (the underlying investment strategy employed by BOXX), time value of money is the source of substantially all of the expected return. With an intermediate-term bond fund, there’s also interest rate risk at play.

But again, maybe there’s some other regulatory issue that I’m not thinking of.

Is This Really Necessary?

It often makes sense to try not to own bonds in a taxable accounts (i.e., own them in tax-deferred accounts instead, where you won’t have to pay tax on the interest every year anyway). If you don’t have to own bonds in a taxable account, then you definitely don’t need something like these new funds.

And if you do have to own bonds in a taxable account, you don’t have to own high-yield bonds or even a total-bond fund. Within the bond portion of a portfolio, we don’t have to diversify in the way that we do with the stock side of the portfolio. It’s not crazy for the fixed-income side of the portfolio to consist of nothing but Treasury bonds (i.e., omitting investment grade corporate bonds as well as high-yield corporate bonds). It’s perfectly fine to stick with something that’s reasonably tax-efficient to begin with, such as a short-term Treasury fund (or a tax-exempt bond fund, depending on your marginal tax rate and how municipal bond yields compare to yields on other bonds).

There’s always a risk to being a guinea pig. Personally, even if I were financially in the target market (i.e., needing to hold bonds in a taxable account), I would be inclined to take a “wait and watch” approach for at least a few years. I really don’t like my investments to be exciting. I’d wait until these are old and boring rather than new and exciting.

Reasons Not to Use ToD/PoD Beneficiary Designations

At death, several types of assets do not have to go through probate. Instead, they pass directly to one or more named beneficiaries. This includes things such as retirement accounts, insurance policies, and assets held in trust. It also includes any assets titled as “payable on death” or “transfer on death.”

Having assets pass outside of probate can save time/hassle, as well as money. (Note: how long probate takes, as well as how much it costs, varies meaningfully by state. Go get the applicable details for yourself before making decisions based on a desire to have assets pass outside of probate.)

When many people learn about the simpler nature of assets passing via ToD/PoD designations, they put such designations on as many of their assets as possible. And in some cases, that does indeed make perfect sense.

But there can also be ways for ToD/PoD designations to backfire.

Not Enough Assets for the Estate to Pay Its Bills

One way in which ToD/PoD designations can backfire is that they can create a situation in which the estate is left with insufficient assets to pay its own bills and “preresiduary bequests.” (In a case in which the will states, “I leave $50,000 to my brother and the remainder of the estate to my daughter,” the bequest to the daughter is a residuary bequest — a bequest of the residual balance — and the bequest to the brother is a preresiduary bequest.)

Ideally, the estate should be left with enough assets to pay preresiduary bequests, the estate’s various tax liabilities (income tax, estate tax if applicable, and property tax), burial/cremation/funeral costs, tax preparation fees, fees to anybody administering the estate, and whatever other expenses the estate is likely to incur. Otherwise disputes may occur, and those disputes may cause permanent damage to family relationships.

Example: Gina’s will indicates that $20,000 is to be left to each of her three nieces, and the remainder of the estate is to be divided between her two children. If too large a portion of Gina’s assets pass via ToD/PoD designations to her two kids, the estate won’t have the $60,000 to pay the intended bequests to her nieces.

Assets Going to the Wrong Person

In some cases, people forget about the ToD/PoD designation on a particular account and thereby end up making decisions that circumvent their own intentions.

Example: Clara’s will indicates that her estate is to be divided equally among her son and two daughters. Clara’s son lives in town with her and is involved in helping her with various day-to-day concerns, whereas her two daughters live elsewhere. Clara has a bank account that represents about 5% of her total assets. The account is payable on death to her son, with the idea being that he’ll ultimately get somewhat more than his siblings, because of the additional help he has provided.

Later in life, Clara sells her home and begins renting a smaller apartment. The proceeds from the sale end up in her bank account and are never redeployed elsewhere. When Clara dies, the bank account represents more than half of her total assets, and her son ends up inheriting a much greater percentage than she had intended.

ToD/PoD designations may cause similar problems in which one of the designated beneficiaries predeceases the original owner (i.e., the assets are ultimately split in a way that is not in keeping with the original owner’s wishes).

Circumventing a Trust

It’s common for an estate plan to involve leaving assets to beneficiaries in trust (i.e., rather than leaving the assets outright, they are left to a trust for the benefit of the person in question). That’s often done for the sake of creditor protection (because the assets in the trust would not be available in a lawsuit against the beneficiary, whereas assets left outright to that person would be). Sometimes it’s done to prevent the assets from being lost to a spouse in a divorce. And sometimes it’s done for estate tax planning reasons (e.g., so that the assets in the trust are not in the beneficiary’s own estate when he/she dies).

Unfortunately, it’s also common for people to pay an attorney to prepare a thoughtful estate plan which includes one or more trusts, and then (without discussing with the attorney) they designate PoD/ToD beneficiaries on accounts rather than leaving the assets to the trust(s) as intended in the estate plan.

Make Sure It’s a Cohesive Plan

Transfer on death and payable on death designations can be helpful. In the right cases, they can avoid considerable hassle and sometimes financial costs as well. But as with any aspect of an estate plan, such designations should be:

  • Carefully thought through before being made,
  • Considered in light of the overall estate plan, and
  • Revisited regularly or whenever the household experiences a major change in circumstances.

What Comes After Financial Independence?

Among people who read personal finance books, many save a high percentage of their income through most of their careers. One thing that eventually happens for some such people is that they reach a point at which they realize they have not only saved "enough," they have saved "more than enough." Their desired standard of living in retirement is well secured, and it’s likely that a major part of the portfolio is eventually going to be left to loved ones and/or charity. And that realization raises a whole list of new questions and concerns.

This book’s goal is to help you answer those questions.

More than Enough: A Brief Guide to the Questions That Arise After Realizing You Have More Than You Need

Topics Covered in the Book:
  • Impactful charitable giving
  • Talking with your kids or other heirs
  • Qualified charitable distributions
  • Deduction bunching
  • Donor-advised funds
  • Trusts
  • Click here to see the full list.
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